Saturday, October 07, 2006

Jeter and Ortiz lead tight AL MVP chase

Jeter and Ortiz lead tight AL MVP chase
Rachel Dolin
Posted: 9/20/06
Talk about a twist in fate.





For maybe the first time all season, the National League is overshadowing the American League-and it's doing it when it counts.

As the Chicago White Sox dropped their fourth game in a row against yet another playoff-contender on Monday evening, the other league saw the New York Mets clinch their first division title since 1988, and the Los Angles Dodgers' Hollywood-esque comeback against the San Diego Padres, dubbed by Dodger second baseman Marlon Anderson, "the most wonderful game I have ever seen in my life."

So where's the AL's pennant-race drama?

Although ill-advised, Big Papi's comments last week drew our attention to the right place-the MVP race. Unlike in the standings, where even the worst gamblers have a fair shot in picking the right teams, there is no unanimous winner here. Baseball writers and fans everywhere are on their own.

Fans will remember last year's battle between Ortiz and rival Alex Rodriguez, or Vladimir Guerrero's 100-point victory over Gary Sheffield in 2004. But this year, there aren't even two clear-cut opponents.

Yankee shortstop Derek Jeter heads the list right now, with his recent 25-game hitting streak drawing the praise of teammates and fans alike. Jeter is having his best year since 1999, when he posted a .349 batting average, hit triple digits in RBI for the first time in his career, and boasted a .438 on-base percentage. Jeter finished sixth in MVP voting that year.

This season, Jeter is second in the AL batting race, behind Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer, with a .340 average. The Yankee shortstop currently has 95 RBI and a league-leading .414 on-base percentage.

Compared to the other three position players legitimately vying for the title-Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau, Boston DH David Ortiz, and Chicago right fielder Jermaine Dye-Jeter's power numbers are weak. All three are well over the century mark in RBIs, and Jeter's 14 homers are dwarfed by the 33, 49, and 42 posted by Morneau, Ortiz, and Dye, respectively.

Jeter has never excelled in the power category, so does that put him a notch below the other candidates? Ortiz proponents would say that the MVP award should go to a power hitter.

Backing up his claim to the crown is Ortiz's lead in a possibly more reliable category, OPS. Ortiz leads the pack with a 1.030 OPS, followed by Dye at 1.020, Morneau at .947, and Jeter at .898.

And just to make matters more complicated, Johan Santana's numbers cannot be ignored. The Minnesota hurler leads the majors with 18 wins, 237 strikeouts and a 2.77 ERA. Although these statistics have their respective flaws, such apparent dominance from the mound is hard to overlook. Apart from Yankee closer Mariano Rivera, no other pitcher has made as much of a candidacy for himself in recent years as Santana.

Inevitably, as in most MVP races of the modern era, baseball writers will be in conflict over whether the winner should come from a playoff team. Should Dye be penalized for his team's poor play over the final couple weeks of the season? Should Ortiz be disregarded for injuries that plagued his final month? Other than A-Rod's 2003 victory, history would answer yes to both of these queries.

And then there is the other perennial question: can an MVP be a player who only takes the field every fifth day, or a player who doesn't take the field at all? Does Ortiz's plate-only showing penalize him? Does Jeter's crucial field position at shortstop bump him up?

As MVP criteria are vague at best, baseball writers will have to answer those questions themselves, making for a tight race. And as for the rest of us, we can only ask the simple, yet perplexing, question, as we anticipate the results: who is 2006's MVP?




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